Polyvinyl alcohol | tariff threat worries that export volume keeps growing.

December 04, 2024

Introduction > > In October 2024, the export volume of polyvinyl alcohol in China was 17,500 tons, up 5.42% month-on-month and 4.2% year-on-year. From January to October 2024, the total export volume of polyvinyl alcohol was 175,000 tons, up 15.9% year-on-year. From January to October 2024, the export volume exceeded the same period of last year, which was the highest level in recent years.

At present, China is the world's largest commodity exporter. In 2018, American enterprises hoarded imports in advance before the implementation of tariffs, and the phenomenon that imports exceeded exports increased in 2018 (mainly before tariffs landed), but decreased in 2019. Therefore, most overseas manufacturers and importers are worried about this tariff threat and purchase orders in the future for a long period in advance.

In October, the export volume of China's polyvinyl alcohol continued to rise. With the recovery of overseas demand, China's polyvinyl alcohol benefited from its own export advantage of low price, and its export volume remained high. Some operators believe that the continuous increase of export volume may be at least partly driven by the early purchase and delivery caused by the uncertain results of the US election. In addition, the phenomenon of grabbing exports is widespread in the window period, which is manifested in a quarter after the tariff threat landed and a quarter before the tariff measures took effect, or a super-seasonal phenomenon.

The price of polyvinyl alcohol in China is the lowest in the world, and its export advantage is obvious. Under the influence of insufficient domestic demand follow-up, the export operation of polyvinyl alcohol production enterprises is actively high. Due to factors such as process and region, there is obvious difference in export orders between suppliers, and domestic polyvinyl alcohol is limited by production capacity, so there is limited room for export increment. Benefiting from the panic hoarding of some foreign investors, the export volume of polyvinyl alcohol in 2024 may become the highest level in history.

In terms of export destinations, India, Malaysia and South Korea rank in the top three, and the main export direction is the transportation near the ocean in the surrounding areas. In 2024, the overseas energy cost is high, the demand for domestic polyvinyl alcohol in Europe is stable, and China's exports to Europe and the United States have increased significantly compared with the same period of last year, which supports the mentality of market participants. From the point of export registration, Hubei, Jiangsu and Anhui rank in the top three.

From the point of view of enterprise location, except Ningxia and Hunan, the export volume of the main manufacturers and Sinopec chemical marketing provinces is relatively high, and the export volume of other provinces has not changed much.

In 2024, the overall start-up load of polyvinyl alcohol in China was around 73%, with a year-on-year increase of 21.67%. The recovery of domestic downstream demand was less than expected, and the strong export demand supported the high price of polyvinyl alcohol. Therefore, polyvinyl alcohol production enterprises mostly implemented the strategy of limiting production and protecting price, and some brands in the domestic market were limited in supply, which made the profit environment of polyvinyl alcohol in an ideal state. From January to October 2024, the theoretical profit of polyvinyl alcohol (including crude methyl acetate) was 3,586 yuan/ton, up 11.61% year-on-year.

Overseas importers increase their purchasing efforts ahead of schedule due to concerns about tariffs, and polyvinyl alcohol producers in China deliver pre-sale orders in advance, or will not be adversely affected by tariffs until the second half of next year. Therefore, it is expected that the export volume of polyvinyl alcohol will remain high in the first half of 2025, and it will fall back in the second half.

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