Analysis of China's DOP industry in 2022

1、 Overview

DOP, namely dioctyl phthalate, is an organic ester compound and a common plasticizer. It is mainly used for the processing of polyvinyl chloride resin, chemical fiber resin, acetic acid resin, ABS resin, rubber and other polymers, as well as paint making, dyes, dispersants and so on. DOP can be divided into general grade DOP, electrical grade DOP, food grade DOP and medical grade DOP according to their different uses.

2、 Industrial chain analysis

1. Industrial chain

The upstream of DOP industry chain mainly includes raw materials such as isooctanol and phthalic anhydride; The midstream is the production and supply link of DOP; The downstream is mainly used in PVC, artificial leather, wire and cable, food packaging, medicine and health and other fields.

2. Upstream end analysis

Isooctanol is one of the most important raw materials of DOP, and its price trend greatly affects the development of the industry. In 2021, due to the hot propylene market, the price of isooctanol continued to rise, and then the price began to fall. By July 2022, the price of isooctanol fell back to 8231 yuan / ton.

3. Downstream end analysis

PVC products are the largest demand area of DOP. With the steady development of China's economy in recent years, the production capacity of China's PVC industry also continues to grow. According to data, in 2021, the capacity of China's PVC industry reached 27.13 million tons, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year.

3、 Industry status

1. Yield

As an important general plasticizer, DOP has developed rapidly with the improvement of China's economic development in recent years. In terms of output, DOP output has been in a volatile trend in recent years. Since 2019, due to the rise of raw material prices and the strong support of the state for environmental plasticizers, China's DOP output has been declining. According to data, in 2021, China's DOP output was 1.288 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%.

2. Price

From the price perspective, in the first half of 2021, due to the rise of raw material prices, DOP prices also continued to rise, once exceeding 15000 yuan / ton. Subsequently, with the fall of raw material prices and the weakening of demand, DOP prices began to decline continuously. By July 2022, DOP prices had dropped to 8974 yuan / ton.

3. Consumption

The main consumption fields of DOP in China are PVC artificial leather, cable materials, shrink film and calendering film, PVC floor wallpaper and pipes. Among them, the application proportion of PVC film and PVC leather is relatively high. With the rising requirements of low-carbon and environmental protection, the market is gradually developing towards the ecological direction of clean production, the demand for traditional PVC products is gradually squeezed, and the corresponding DOP plasticizer dosage is also impacted, and the demand shows a downward trend. According to data, in 2021, China's DOP demand was 1.293 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1%.

4. Import situation

In terms of imports, China's DOP is mainly imported. In recent years, with the strong support of the state for environmental friendly plasticizers, China's DOP import has shown a downward trend, from 187500 tons in 2015 to 15900 tons in 2020. In 2021, the import volume increased slightly, to 38100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 139.6%. The import amount was 67 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 346.7%.

From the perspective of import distribution, Taiwan, China of China is the most important source of DOP imports in China, accounting for 68.5% of the import value in 2021, followed by South Korea and Malaysia, accounting for 16.2% and 11.5% respectively.

5. Export situation

From the perspective of exports, China's DOP exports have shown an upward trend in recent years. By 2021, the export volume will reach 33000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 106.3%, and the export value will be US $57 million, a year-on-year increase of 242.4%.

From the perspective of export distribution, the top three regions in China's DOP export value in 2021 are Vietnam, Egypt and Indonesia, accounting for 13.6%, 11.6% and 10.2% respectively.

6. Average import and export price

From the perspective of average import and export prices, in recent years, the gap between the average import and export prices of DOP in China has been small and basically stable. In 2021, the average import and export prices have increased. Specifically, in 2021, the average import price of DOP in China was 1760.3 US dollars / ton, an increase of 81.5% year-on-year, and the average export price was 1727.2 US dollars / ton, an increase of 65.8% year-on-year.

(IV) development trend

Traditional phthalate plasticizers are the most widely used plasticizers at home and abroad, accounting for about 85% of the market. Because of its low cost, superior performance and mature technology, it has been widely used in packaging materials, cosmetics, medical devices and other fields. Since the carcinogenicity of dioctyl phthalate was studied by the authoritative National Cancer Institute of the United States in 1982, the toxicity of phthalate plasticizers has attracted wide attention from all walks of life. In addition to its own toxicity, o-benzene plasticizers have the risk of migration during use, which further increases the harm to the environment and health. At present, countries around the world have formulated strict standards and regulations for products containing phthalate plasticizers. With the continuous increase of people's awareness of environmental protection and the demand for multifunctional plastics, the research and development of new environmental friendly plasticizers has become the development trend of the plasticizer industry. Each environmental plasticizer has its advantages and disadvantages, and there are many problems in the production process, such as immature technology, high cost, low efficiency, and many by-products. Therefore, the environmental plasticizer needs further research and performance improvement.