DOP market review in 2022

The price of DOP will fluctuate and consolidate in 2022

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of December 31, the price of DOP was 9750 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the price of 9775 yuan/ton on January 1. The highest price in the year was 13400 yuan/ton on February 8, and the lowest price was 8775 yuan/ton on July 18, with the maximum amplitude of 34.51%. Good news and bad news mixed, and plasticizer prices fluctuated and consolidated in a wide range during the year.

The trend of plasticizer DOP in 2022 can be divided into four stages: the first stage: rapid rise stage; The second stage: high shock consolidation stage; The third stage: slump in the off-season; The fourth stage: low shock consolidation stage.

Rapid rise stage

The first stage is from January to March, which is a fast rising stage. On February 8, it reached a high of 13400 yuan/ton in 2022. Compared with 9775 yuan/ton on January 1 at the beginning of the year, up 37.08%. Before the Spring Festival, the benefits of double-holiday stocking and winter Olympic production and transportation restrictions continued to increase, stimulating the continuous rise of plasticizer prices. After the festival, crude oil soared, and plasticizer prices followed the surge. With the end of replenishment, demand fell, while the Ukrainian and Russian crisis intensified, the energy crisis intensified, and plasticizer prices fluctuated and consolidated.

High shock consolidation stage

The second stage: high consolidation stage: from April to the middle of June. In April, the epidemic situation in Shanghai was frequent, the downstream enterprises began to decline, the demand for plasticizers was less than expected, and the support for the rise of plasticizers was insufficient; Domestic prevention and control were strengthened, transportation was limited, equipment maintenance of enterprises in the plasticizer industry chain increased, multiple positive incentives, and plasticizer prices fluctuated and consolidated.

Slow-season slump stage

The third stage: off-season slump stage: from mid-June to July, the price of plasticizer plummeted. By the end of July, the price of DOP fell by 25.47% compared with that of late June. In the off-season of the market, the demand was insufficient, the price of plasticizer plummeted, the epidemic situation improved, the enterprises in the plasticizer industry chain started to rise, the transportation resumed, and the price of plasticizer stopped falling and consolidated in the middle and late July.

Low shock consolidation stage

The fourth stage: from August to December, the low level fluctuated and consolidated. In late August, power supply was limited in Sichuan, plasticizer enterprises started to decline, and plasticizer prices rebounded slightly. However, the plasticizer market in September and October was not booming, the demand for plasticizer was less than expected, and the DOP rise was not supported enough; In November and December, favorable policies continued to be implemented, but the frequent outbreaks of epidemic diseases led to demand less than expected, and the price of plasticizers fluctuated and consolidated.

Aftermarket expectation

In 2022, the Winter Olympics limited production and transportation, the energy crisis, the crisis in Ukraine and Russia, and the epidemic situation were frequent. The price of plasticizer industry chain was adjusted in a wide range in 2022, but the supply and demand of plasticizer was relatively balanced, and the price of plasticizer industry chain products was relatively stable throughout the year. DOP prices fell slightly.

In 2023, worries about economic weakness intensified, domestic epidemic prevention and control were fully relaxed, domestic economic stimulus policies continued, and both sides were intertwined. In 2023, the market may show international economic weakness, and the domestic economy will recover.

In the future, the short-term annual close is approaching, the downstream stock of plasticizers has ended, the downstream enterprises have more holidays in advance, the demand for plasticizers before the holiday is insufficient, the price of plasticizers before the holiday is stable, the downstream stock replenishment increases after the holiday, and the plasticizers may rebound briefly.

In the long run, in the post-epidemic era, the weakness of the foreign market economy continued, the demand for plasticizer DOP weakened, and the expected recovery of the domestic economy has a positive support for plasticizer DOP, but the positive is not enough to support the continuous rise of plasticizer DOP prices. Since the fourth quarter of 2020, the price of plasticizer DOP has remained high, which is mainly affected by the increase in exports after the outbreak of the epidemic. In 2023, the fear of foreign economic weakness has intensified, and exports may decline significantly. The price of plasticizer DOP is expected to decline in 2023.